Growing the Future

Canola Prices and the Washington Policy Fight

Episode Summary

Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag spent more than fifteen years merchandising physical grain on the Mississippi river system before going out on her own, and now reads US biofuel regulation so producers do not have to. She joins Dan and co-host Ryan Bonnett of ABB Solutions to trace how a California carbon rule turned canola oil from a food crop into an energy crop, what happened when the small refinery exemption calculation changed in September, and why an amendment to the production tax credit put canola back in the game for 2026. The tension is that the single largest driver of Western Canadian canola prices is now a set of policy documents written in Washington and Sacramento, and almost nobody growing the crop has read one. Producers walk away understanding what RINs and exemptions actually do to their basis, where canola meal goes and why meal rather than oil is now driving crush margins, and why she thinks the risk is stacking higher while still insisting you keep selling into it.

Episode Notes

Canola is priced off documents written in another country, and most of the people growing it have never read one.

Susan Stroud spent more than fifteen years in the cash grain business, buying by truck and rail and loading out on barge, before building No Bull Ag into a grain and oilseed analysis service. She joins Dan and co-host Ryan Bonnett of ABB Solutions for a working session on the policy machinery underneath the canola market.

What's Inside

• How a California low carbon fuel standard, commissioned by a movie star governor, set off the renewable diesel boom that built Canada's crush capacity
• What a RIN actually is, what a small refinery exemption does, and what happened when the hardship calculation was quietly rewritten this September
• Why canola oil fell off the tax credit map entirely in 2025, and the single amendment that brought it back for 2026
• Where canola meal goes, why meal has overtaken oil as the profit driver in crush, and what broiler chickens have to do with your basis
• Her read on why the risks are stacking bullish, and why she still tells producers to keep selling into strength rather than sitting on their hands

Resources Mentioned
No Bull Ag market insights, with a two week preview
AgVentures international tours

Connect with Susan Stroud:
No Bull Ag: nobullag.com
X: @SusanNobull

Connect with Ryan Bonnett:
ABB Solutions

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