A Saskatchewan farmer posted a TikTok with a Johnny Cash soundtrack and asked why nobody was talking about the fact that farming in 2026 doesn't pencil out. The comments told the whole story.
The post came after a long drive home from a production show.
Jay Peterson had spent the day talking to people at booths, catching up with friends, listening to the Manitoba and Saskatchewan numbers come out on the radio. And somewhere between Saskatoon and Swift Current, something settled on him. Nobody was really having the conversation. Not out loud. Not honestly.
So he made a video. Johnny Cash in the background. A simple question underneath it. Why is nobody talking about the fact that nothing we can grow in 2026 is going to make us money?
The comments came in five flavors. Some farmers said they'd never quit, no matter what. Some were close to a breaking point. Some said it was just another cycle. Some thought bigger forces were reshaping the whole industry. And some were just trying to make sense of it.
This episode is the conversation that followed.
Four farmers. Real numbers. No prescriptions. No easy answers.
The question underneath all of it: when the math stops working, what are we actually farming for?
Guests
Jay Peterson — JSP Farms Chris Allam — Allen Farms Norm Shoemaker — Shoemaker Ag Ventures Partnership Jeff Bennett — Bone Trail Land Company
Timestamps
00:00 — Jay's TikTok, the long drive home from the production show, and why the comments hit a nerve.
08:34 — The live poll. How does your farm pencil out for 2026? 26% profitable. 42% break even at best. 16% likely a loss.
09:14 — Jay on what he was actually feeling when he made the post. Inputs still high. Prices not following. The sense that everyone was in the same position but nobody was saying it.
13:48 — Norm on the math. It used to take a metric ton of durum to break even. Now it takes close to two. Costs went one way and didn't come back.
15:22 — Jeff on why he stopped trying to predict what the year would bring. Four tough years before a good one. The numbers change every two months. You still show up.
17:09 — Chris makes the case it's not that dire, at least in Alberta. Average contribution margin, a little bit of profit. But he's clear: this was never a one-year home run industry.
19:18 — Cycles. Nobody agrees on where we are. Norm says we got used to good years and probably over-invested in iron. Jay says he might just be a year-by-year guy.
21:44 — Jay on why he never wanted to be a home run farmer. Singles and doubles. The rare triple. What it felt like to watch the bottom fall out mid-harvest last fall.
28:53 — The second poll. What's putting the most pressure right now? Inputs at 55%. Commodity prices at 42%. Land costs at 36%. Equipment at 27%.
29:45 — Whether cutting production costs to meet the market is actually a strategy. Chris says you produce more, not less. Jeff says fertilizing for disaster is its own kind of disaster.
31:43 — Jay on buying base chemical components instead of prepackaged. Why he grows mustard and not canola. Efficiency over volume when the rain isn't coming.
34:24 — Norm on land values. A million dollars a quarter. A son and a son-in-law coming into the operation. The math on return when you run those numbers.
36:32 — What farmers are actually doing differently this year. Variable rate fertilizing. Weekly peer group meetings. Cost benchmarking. Lean Six Sigma on the farm.
43:18 — Jeff on switching acres to canary seed and specialty canola. Crop rotation as a profit strategy. Finally back to a third, third, third rotation after years of disease pressure.
46:00 — The last question. What are you farming for when the numbers don't work?
47:27 — Chris: the next generation, and watching marginal land get better year after year.
48:16 — Jeff: fourth or fifth generation on this land. Leaving a starting point better than the one he was handed.
49:38 — Norm: the kids, the grandkids, and the table. Number six on the way. Who's at the table is what matters.
50:32 — Jay: he got into it because he loves farming. Loves farming with his dad. Loves doing it as well or better than the generations before him.
52:27 — Why Dan wanted to create a room for this conversation. And why it matters that farmers are willing to say it out loud.
Platform partners
Bone Trail Originals — www.instagram.com/bonetrailoriginals/
Hammond Realty — hammondrealty.ca
Crop-Aid Nutrition Gripp — gripp.ag
Connect with Growing the Future
growingthefuture.ca