Growing the Future

Sell High or Sell Wrong - A Pre-Harvest Market Briefing

Episode Summary

Dave Norris of Norris Crop Consulting and Todd Rowan of IXL Innovations join Darren Sander, a Rosetown, Saskatchewan producer and Crop Aid Nutrition client, to read where the 2026 canola crop actually stands heading into harvest. The panel walks through why two bushels an acre off the provincial average works out to roughly a million tons, why record crush and export demand could leave the market rationed if the crop lands under 21 million tons, and why China stepping back into the canola market in August is a signal worth watching. They close with a live reaction to the August USDA report as it dropped, and a plain answer to the fall's real question: lock something in now, or wait.

Episode Notes

Canola's up on a good rally, fertilizer's down from its spring highs, and for the first time in a while, Western Canadian producers have a little swagger back. But every rally raises the same question: is this the one you lock in, or the one that convinces you to wait too long?

Dave Norris of Norris Crop Consulting and Todd Rowan of IXL Innovations, two grain marketing advisors working with the top tier of Western Canadian producers, join Darren Sander of Crop Aid Nutrition, a working farmer near Rosetown, Saskatchewan, to read where this crop actually stands and what it means for pricing decisions this fall.

The math is tight. Two bushels an acre off the Canadian canola average works out to about a million tons. With crush running at 14 million tons and exports near 9 million, a crop landing at 21 million tons instead of 23 leaves someone rationed. The panel breaks down the real story on crop size, why China stepping back into the market matters more than most producers realize, and what the fertilizer and fuel numbers actually tell you about locking in the 2026 crop now.

What's Inside

• Why 2 bushels off the Canadian canola average works out to about a million tons, and what that means for pricing
• What it means when 14 million tons of crush and 9 million tons of exports meet a crop that might land at 21 million tons
• Why China stepping into the canola market in August is a signal worth watching, and what it tends to wake up in other buyers
• Why fertilizer at $850 a ton looks different once you compare it to what canola is actually worth right now
• The real reason most producers miss good pricing windows: they respond to a push notification, not a website they have to remember to check
• A live read on the August USDA report as it dropped, and what it changed in the room in real time

If this conversation makes you think about who's actually watching your marketing decisions, go back in the catalog for our episode with Derek Squair on what a grain market coach actually gets paid to do, a conversation that asks the same question from the other side of the table.

Resources Mentioned

• Norris Crop Consulting
• IXL Innovations
• Crop Aid Nutrition's soil health program

Connect with Dave Norris

• www.nccag.ca

Connect with Todd Rowan

• Text 306-260-3353

Connect with Darren Sander

• Crop Aid Nutrition

Connect with Growing the Future

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