Robert Andjelic, Canada's largest private farmland owner, returns to defend three years of public predictions and lay out a new one. After tracking his own record on Saskatchewan land values, interest rates, and credit tightening, the conversation turns to his current thesis: a convergence of the Strait of Hormuz closure, a developing super El Nino, and global aquifer depletion that he believes makes Canada and Russia the two biggest beneficiaries of the next several years. He puts the odds of a genuine agricultural super cycle between 2026 and 2028 at 65 to 75 percent. The live audience pushes back throughout, and Robert answers without softening.
Robert Andjelic has been bearish more often than not for three years. In January, he stood in front of a packed room and called a capital squeeze. This time he came back fired up about something different: three converging forces he believes put Canada in the strongest agricultural position in a generation.
What follows is Robert defending three years of public predictions, line by line, before laying out the new one.
Topics and Timestamps
0:00 -- Dan opens. Robert's backstory: escaping Croatia as a boy, building a commercial real estate empire, the Saskatchewan land bet that started at $400 an acre
5:00 -- Audience poll: who's bullish, neutral, or bearish right now
8:00 -- Why farmer suicide rates stay high even when the numbers look good
12:00 -- The fall 2023 call to lock in farm debt, revisited
18:00 -- Mark to market: the Saskatchewan farmland call, three years of FCC data
21:00 -- Why Robert owns zero acres of farmland in the United States
23:00 -- The eight early signs of credit tightening, in order
30:00 -- What a major operator's financial trouble this year means for the rest of the industry
41:00 -- Rent versus buy: the framework Robert actually uses on his own land
45:00 -- Why the smaller rural towns keep shrinking
52:00 -- Why Canada is technically in a recession as of mid-2026
59:00 -- The Hormuz oil shock compared to the 1979-81 shock
1:04:00 -- How the live audience rated Robert's three-year track record
1:06:00 -- The cattle herd rebuild that's still years from equilibrium
1:10:00 -- The bullish thesis: the Strait of Hormuz, a developing super El Nino, and the aquifers running dry
1:13:00 -- Robert's probability breakdown for an agricultural super cycle, 2026 to 2028
1:20:00 -- Why Robert doesn't trust AI to predict what happens next
1:21:00 -- Inside the Strait of Hormuz: vessels waiting, insurers pulling back, years to rebuild
1:29:00 -- Closing: investing by the numbers, not the narrative
Resources Mentioned
FCC Farmland Values Report -- cultivated land value data cited for Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta
NOAA El Nino Watch, issued May 14, 2026
Reuters reporting on Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic and tanker movement
Connect with Robert Andjelic
Canada's largest private farmland owner, 450,000+ acres across Western Canada
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