Growing the Future

The Land Market Split

Episode Summary

There's a division happening across the prairies right now — between the best and the rest of the dirt. Dan sits down with four people who price farmland risk for a living to unpack what the FCC's 2025 numbers are actually telling us, what the headlines are missing, and where the cracks are starting to show.

Episode Notes

FCC just dropped the 2025 farmland numbers. Canada up 9.3%. Manitoba leading at 12.2. Saskatchewan at 9.4. West Central Saskatchewan at 4.8 — roughly half the provincial move.

That split is what this episode is about.

Dan hosts a live panel with four guests who are in the data, closing deals, and financing purchases right now. Not forecasting from a distance. Actually in it. Together they work through what the headline number isn't telling you, why buyers are getting more selective, what lenders are seeing at Q1, and what comes next for a market that has run hard for twenty-five years.

The honest answer from every person on the panel: the market is not the same everywhere, and it hasn't been for a while.

Topics and timestamps:

• 0:00 — Introduction. The division forming between good land and everything else. FCC 2025 numbers across the prairies.
• 5:00 — Panel introductions: Tim Hammond (Hammond Realty), Bobby Montreuil (Hammond Realty / active producer), Courtney Thevenot (Scotiabank Ag), Conrad Olson (FCC, West Central Saskatchewan)
• 6:00 — What the market is telling the people actually closing deals — that the FCC report won't show until next year
• 8:00 — Why 30 pre-approvals per tender became 4 or 5. Less players. Not less land moving.
• 10:00 — West Central at 4.8% vs. the provincial 9.4%. What tighter margins and rougher crop years look like in the numbers, lagged.
• 13:00 — Live audience poll: where do you think farmland values are going in your area in the next 12 months? Results: 53% flat, 18% down, 24% up.
• 17:00 — How fortunes get made in land. The cap rate reality. Why the guy who paid $2,100 when everyone said $1,800 was the ceiling was right.
• 19:00 — Where are producers actually getting their local farmland values? Neighbors and coffee shop vs. realtor vs. lender vs. FCC. (Spoiler: coffee shop was first pick for 26%.)
• 23:00 — The Saskatchewan Comparable Farmland Reports and Farmland Security Board database as a tool for area-specific data.
• 28:00 — "They're not making any more land." How land buyers pencil it out when input costs keep rising and commodity prices stay uncertain.
• 29:00 — The lender's view: it's never about one parcel. It's about the whole operation. Cash flow. Equity. Fit.
• 33:00 — Large land packages and what potential Manette-scale offerings might signal for market dynamics.
• 37:00 — Next audience poll: what is your most likely land move in the next 12 months? 45% hold. 25% buy. 11% sell. 20% rent before purchase.
• 38:00 — Strategic efficiency purchases. Buying to right-size. Selling what's far away and consolidating closer to home.
• 41:00 — The Pareto Principle and farmland: 80% of what's for sale is weaker land. Was true in the 2000s. Still true now.
• 44:00 — Succession pressure and what it means for supply. 65% of Saskatchewan farmland owned by someone 65 or older. What happens when no one's taking over?
• 46:00 — Lending health check. Are declines increasing? Short answer from both Scotia and FCC: not really. Agriculture is holding stronger than the general business community.
• 51:00 — Creative financing structures for land that doesn't pencil on its own. Interest-only periods. Phased purchases. Part-buy, part-rent.
• 54:00 — Final round: one takeaway from each panelist. Bobby: still long on farmland. Courtney: Canadian ag is set up to shine. Conrad: hesitancy with a strong dose of optimism — know your numbers and stay agile.
• 58:00 — Audience takeaways read live, plus upcoming episodes: Drew Lerner on spring weather, non-farming siblings and succession, Steffes auction on whether now is the time to buy iron.

What makes this one worth your time:

You have an FCC lender, a Scotiabank ag lender, a real estate professional who is also actively farming, and one of Saskatchewan's most experienced farm real estate agents — all in the same room at the same time. No rehearsed answers. No unified talking point. Just four people telling you what they're actually seeing in Q1 2026, with an audience of producers pushing back in real time.

The takeaway isn't a prediction. It's a map. Good land in good areas is behaving differently than average land in average areas. Lenders are still lending. Buyers are getting more selective. And succession is quietly building pressure underneath all of it that the headline numbers don't capture yet.

Guests:

Tim Hammond — Founder and CEO, Hammond Realty. 25 years in Saskatchewan farm real estate. Expert in farmland transactions, succession advisory, and M&A. Based in Biggar, Saskatchewan. hammondrealty.ca

Bobby Montreuil — Farm real estate agent with Hammond Realty and active prairie producer. Both sides of the deal, every day.

Courtney Thevenot — Agricultural Lender, Scotiabank. Part of the Build Your Ag Dream Team. Sees the deals before they close and the ones that don't.

Conrad Olson — Agricultural Lender, FCC Rosetown. A decade financing West Central Saskatchewan land purchases. Knows the dirt.

Stay connected:

Growing the Future Productions — growingtthefuture.ca LinkedIn: Growing the Future YouTube: Growing the Future Podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and all major platforms.

Hammond Realty — hammondrealty.ca Scotiabank Agriculture — scotiabank.com/agriculture Farm Credit Canada (FCC) — fcc.ca